“Don’t underestimate how tough this was for us. Returning to power for a fourth time is not easy; many other chief ministers — from Shivraj Singh Chouhan to Raman Singh — failed to do so. But Nitish Kumar succeeded despite the media narrative against him.”
The relief, laced with bitterness, that marks the statement by a senior aide to chief minister Nitish Kumar is an apt summary of the mood on 1, Anne Marg, the chief ministerial residence in Patna.
There is relief at the return of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) but more importantly the fact that Kumar is set to be CM once again.
But there is more than a degree of bitterness at the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)‘s refusal to keep the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) in check — if LJP had not contested separately, the Janata Dal (United) would have fared much better — and the general narrative during the campaign, which pointed to anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar and the possible emergence of Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)‘s Tejashwi Yadav.
Indeed, these somewhat opposing emotions, in many ways, encapsulate the paradox that has marked Nitish Kumar’s political trajectory in recent decades.
He is the quintessential “Single Man”, the title of journalist Sankarshan Thakur’s biography of Kumar, who was always dependent on a partner (first the BJP, then the RJD, and back to the BJP) to win. He is a socialist who has comfortably been in alliance with the key ideological adversary of socialists, the BJP; a politician groomed in the Lohiaite tradition of anti-Congressism who has also allied with the Congress; and a leader with a limited caste base of his own who has managed to weave together a wide coalition of castes. He is an administrator who transformed Bihar in his early terms but who began to be perceived as stagnant in his later terms. He is an understated man who showed uncharacteristic belligerence during the campaign this time around. And he is a chief minister who broke his alliance with the BJP over Narendra Modi’s elevation as the prime ministerial candidate but who was substantially dependent on PM Modi to retain his own CM-ship this time around.
As a summation, Kumar is a leader whose survival skills have often prevailed over his political challenges.
These skills — of survival, of past governance record, of carefully cultivated alliances, and of a limited but loyal base — have helped Kumar return to power, yet again, defying predictions. But it is his weaknesses — of eroded credibility because of his constant shifts, of a less than credible record during the pandemic and earlier, and of the love-hate relationship with BJP — which have also led to his party being relegated to the third place in Bihar, and for the first time, a junior partner in the NDA alliance.
What worked for Nitish Kumar was that he was not Lalu Prasad — and voters decided that while they were disillusioned with Kumar, they did not want a return to the past.
What worked for Kumar was his policy focus on decisions that would win over women — prohibition has spawned a parallel, illegal economy and is observed more in breach than in practice, yet women appear to have voted for him in large numbers because he fulfilled his promise to bring peace to their homes with the decision.
What worked for Kumar was the fierce loyalty he still appears to command among extreme backward classes — who tasted political power and received protection against excesses of members of a more dominant caste, the Yadavs, under the NDA.
And what worked for Nitish Kumar was his alliance with BJP in general and Narendra Modi in particular — Modi, who remains deeply popular in the state, vouched for the CM in his rallies and sought support for “double engine” growth where both the Centre and the state were under the same formation.
All this gives Bihar’s chief minister reason to smile. But that smile will be muted — because of his dependence on the force that has remained a junior partner till now, the BJP. What did not work for Nitish Kumar was the LJP’s decision to contest separately which cut into NDA votes, benefiting the RJD. What did not work for him was the widespread perception that he has failed to steer Bihar towards the next phase of reforms which would yield jobs. What did not work for him was that his own party organisation remains weak, and the JD(U), like many other regional parties, hasn’t been able to grow beyond a one leader formation.
And that is why it is this dialectic of what has worked and what has not, of relief and pain that has meant Bihar will see Nitish Kumar in power, but as a less powerful CM than in the past. If Kumar indeed lives up to his statement that this is his last election, 2020 will prove that the single man needed a double engine to kickstart the car — but it is precisely that double engine which will make the ride more bumpy than Nitish Kumar would have liked in what may well be his final term.
