Deviating from its conventional image of being an urban party, Shiv Sena is looking to woo rural voters in Maharashtra– a traditional stronghold of the state’s opposition parties –Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and Congress. The party also faces stiff competition in the region from its chief ally, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which made significant gains in the 2014 Assembly Elections.
A detailed strategy was prepared for the party starting with its youth cell–Yuva Sena, which was founded and is being led by Aditya Thackeray, where 111 key priority Assembly Constituencies (ACs) were shortlisted across the state which includes 79 rural seats, 9 semi urban and 22 urban seats, according to top party functionaries.
This was part of Aditya Thackeray’s Jan Ashirwad Yatra where he covered nearly 5,500 km travelling across the party’s traditional strongholds of Mumbai and the Konkan region and beyond, into rural Maharashtra in the North, Marathwada, Vidarbha.
“I have been touring the state for nine years formally and much more earlier, be it reaching out to drought hit areas, or supporting farmers or student activism and women self help groups. This yatra was to seek blessings from the people to build a new Maharashtra,” Aditya Thackery told Hindustan Times.
Aaditya’s yatra across the 111 ACs focusing on rural constituencies was a conscious effort from the party to change his image from focusing only on student and urban politics. The yatra also spurred rumours of the party’s youth leader contesting elections and being the first from his family to do so. Party sources say, he is likely to contest from a seat in Worli, Mumbai.
In a bid to tap on rural Maharashtra, the Sena leadership is also contemplating that Aditya should contest from a ‘safe’ constituency in rural Maharashtra. Party functionaries said that the Worli assembly segment is the top pick for Thackeray, as it is a mix of Marathi population as well as upper-middle class voters, which can be tapped easily by the party. With former NCP leader and former Worli MLA Sachin Ahir joining the Sena, the constituency is a risk-free seat, where there is no prominent leader from the Opposition.
However, the party also feels that contesting on a seat from the rural part of the state would boost the confidence of leaders and legislators who feel sidelined, when it comes to picking them for ministerial berths and other posts. Seats in Marathwada are being looked at for Aditya, who if he decides to contest, will be the first to deviate from the family tradition of staying away from electoral politics. According to sources, he is likely to file his nomination next week followed by a ‘pad yatra’ to begin his campaign.
“The objective of the Jan Ashirwad Yatra was to thank the people for their belief in us to represent their aspirations for a new Maharashtra. In all the places where the Yatra travelled, we saw people enthusiastically participating and assuring us of their continued support and blessings. As a party, for Shiv Sena entire Maharashta is important…our leader Shri Aditya Thackeray ji wanted to reach out to as many people as possible understanding their concerns, issues, feedback and seek blessings from them,” Suraj Chavan, Shiv Sena, Secretary said.
About 45 per cent of the state’s population lives in urban areas and more than 100 out of 288 assembly constituencies are in urban or semi-urban areas.
In 2009, out of a total of 44 seats, the party was able to win only 26 seats from rural, 15 from urban and 3 in semi urban constituencies.
The party traditionally draws its strength from the support of the Maratha Kunbi communities in the Konkan region of the state around whom the party’s strong hard line policy is centred.
“The main focus on rural seats is of course to maximise the party’s vote base and where the dividends are. After the result of 2014 elections, the party realised that we made a dent for the first time in Western Maharashtra apart from Konkan and Mumbai areas as well and we want to build on it,” a party leader, who didn’t want to be named, said.
However, after the communities were granted reservation status by the ruling party, Sena faces an even bigger challenge from its Lok Sabha alliance partner.
In 2014, the party’s seat count rose to 63 with 34 seats in rural, 23 in urban and 6 in semi-urban areas. The Shiv Sena made inroads in the interior parts of the state which the party aims to maximize.
Shiv Sena had earlier this year also roped in election strategist and current JDU Vice President Prashant Kishor for its assembly election campaign. As part of its election strategy, farmers’ outreach campaigns were also planned across the state to woo rural support.
“ Party chief Uddhav Thackeray also began a campaign-’Pik Vima’ aimed at raising issues of farmers who did not get their due from insurance companies. He led the protest against insurance companies at Bandra-Kurla Complex (BKC) after only 10 lakh farmers had received compensation. Uddhav helped 90 lakh farmers receive Rs 2,000 crore as the compensation amount who were earlier categorised as ‘ineligible’ by insurance companies,” another Shiv Sena party member said on the condition of anonymity.
The party faces a tripartite threat in the region and plans to cut in on a weakened NCP following the results of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections where the party won 18 out of 23 seats that it contested in.
“We aim to increase our relevance in this areas and also cut into NCP’s vote share which was weakened over the last three months across its traditional bastion on Western Maharashtra with many of its tall leaders shifting camp to BJP. The BJP had dented into the party’s vote bank in 2014,” he added.
As talks of an alliance for the assembly elections still remain uncertain, the party has focused on about 150 out of the state’s 288 seats with nearly 70% in rural areas with the aim to cut into the vote share of NCP and the BJP.
In the first set of assembly elections after the 2019 Lok Sabha poll Maharashtra and Haryana are scheduled to go to polls on October 21. Out of Maharashtra’s 288 assembly seats, 29 are reserved for scheduled castes and 25 for scheduled tribes.
Mumbai-based political analyst Prakash Bal said that with several NCP leaders and MLAs going to the Sena, it would help the party grow in the region. “Shiv Sena started as an urban party with focus on Mumbai and Thane but it started expanding its base to Marathwada. A large party of the credit should go to Chhagan Bhujbal to initiate this when he was with the Sena. Now with NCP leaders mainly from rural areas joining the Sena, it could help them in those regions. However, the situation is fluid, Sharad Pawar is now getting a lot of support in rural areas again since some days now,” Bal said.
