The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has announced full-year global passenger traffic results for 2020 showing that demand (revenue passenger kilometres) fell by 65.9 percent compared to the full year of 2019 — by far the sharpest traffic decline in aviation history.
Besides, forward bookings have been falling sharply since late December.
International passenger demand in 2020 was 75.6 percent below 2019 levels. Capacity measured in available seat kilometres declined 68.1 percent and load factor fell 19.2 percentage points to 62.8 per cent.
Domestic demand in 2020 was down 48.8 percent compared to 2019. Capacity contracted by 35.7 percent and load factor dropped 17 percentage points to 66.6 percent.
December 2020 total traffic was 69.7 percent below the same month in 2019, little improved from the 70.4 percent contraction in November. Capacity was down 56.7 percent and load factor fell 24.6 percentage points to 57.5 percent.
Bookings for future travel made in January 2021 were down 70 percent compared to a year ago, putting further pressure on airline cash positions and potentially impacting the timing of the expected recovery.
IATA’s baseline forecast for 2021 is for a 50.4 percent improvement on 2020 demand that would bring the industry to 50.6 percent of 2019 levels. While this view remains unchanged, there is severe downside risk if more severe travel restrictions in response to new variants persist.
Should such a scenario materialise, demand improvement could be limited to just 13 percent over 2020 levels, leaving the industry at 38 percent of 2019 levels.
“Last year was a catastrophe. There is no other way to describe it,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.
“What recovery there was over the Northern hemisphere summer season stalled in autumn and the situation turned dramatically worse over the year-end holiday season, as more severe travel restrictions were imposed in the face of new outbreaks and new strains of Covid-19,” he said.
Asia Pacific airlines’ full-year traffic plunged 80.3 percent in 2020 compared to 2019 which was the deepest decline for any region. It fell 94.7 percent in the month of December amid stricter lockdowns, little changed from a 95 percent decline in November.
Full-year capacity was down 74.1 percent compared to 2019. Load factor fell 19.5 percentage points to 61.4 percent.
European carriers saw a 73.7 percent traffic decline in 2020 versus 2019 and Middle Eastern airlines’ annual passenger demand in 2020 was 72.9 percent below 2019.
North American airlines’ full-year traffic fell 75.4 percent compared to 2019 while Latin American airlines had a 71.8 percent full-year traffic decline compared to 2019.
African airlines’ traffic fell 69.8 percent last year compared to 2019, which was the best performance among regions.
