India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a red category warning for Rajasthan, Saurashtra and Kutch region for Monday. The region is likely to record extremely heavy rain (over 20 cm). On Sunday as well, parts of Gujarat and Rajasthan like Udaipur, Porbander, Kandla etc recorded heavy rain.
A low pressure area is currently lying over central parts of south Rajasthan, according to IMD’s Monday morning bulletin. It is very likely to move westwards across west Rajasthan during next two days and become less marked thereafter.
However, the associated cyclonic circulation is likely to meander over south Rajasthan neighbourhood region for the subsequent 2-3 days. The monsoon trough (line of low pressure) is active and south of its normal position (Ganganagar to Bay of Bengal). It is likely to remain active during next 2-3 days.
Due to these favourable conditions, extremely heavy rain is very likely over south-west Rajasthan and Gujarat on August 24.
Heavy to very heavy rain is very likely over east Rajasthan over west Rajasthan on August 25 and 26 and over Saurashtra and Kutch on August 15.
Another low pressure area has formed over North Bay of Bengal on Monday. Low pressure areas are the main rain bearing system during monsoon which bring a lot of rain to the core monsoon region (parts of central and east India). Due to its development, rain is likely to increase over east and central India once again.
Heavy to very heavy rain is very likely over Odisha during August 24 to 26 with extremely heavy rainfall in parts of the state on August 25; over Gangetic West Bengal during August 25 and 26 and Jharkhand during August 26 and 27.
Due to convergence of lower level easterlies from Bay of Bengal and south-westerlies from Arabian Sea, rainfall activity is likely to also increase over northwest India from August 25: Jammu & Kashmir, Gilgit, Baltistan, Muzaffarabad & Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh are likely to record heavy rain from August 25 to 28 and Uttarakhand to record heavy to very heavy falls during August 25 to 28.
Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh are likely to record widespread and heavy rain on August 26 and 27.
Overall monsoon rain over the country since June 1 has been 7% excess. It has been 6% excess over east and northeast India, 14% deficient over northwest India, 13% excess over central India and 26% excess over south Peninsula.
