The states of Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh have seen a dip in the R value or the reproductive number during the last week, according to a recent study.
Reproductive number is the number of people getting infected by an already infected person on average.
This value has gone below 1 in these high-burden states in the week starting September 19, according to the Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Chennai, and this has helped flatten India’s Covid-19 curve. However, the R value in Maharashtra and Karnataka has begun creeping up again, said Sitabhra Sinha, a researcher at the institute.
India’s R value dropped from 1.1 to 0.9 during the same week, the study indicated, adding that the durability of this trend depends on the infection rate in the cities of Mumbai, Pune, Chennai, Kolkata and Bengaluru.
“India’s Covid-19 tally is dependent on how Maharashtra is doing as the state accounts for a large number of active cases.Therefore its contribution to the national average is significant. It will also depend on the magnitude of the R value and the state continues to dominate the R value of India,” said Sinha.
Centre needs to come up with a plan to contain spread of infection in states with a high R value, even if they have a low number of infections currently, as they may easily end up replacing those with highest R value currently, he added.
Among the states with a high number of Covid-19 cases, Andhra Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh have R value below 1. In Chennai, Bengaluru and Kolkata, the value has gone above 1 after a slight dip earlier, the study added.
