A no-deal Brexit would cost Ireland more than 73,000 jobs over the next two years, the nation’s central bank said.
If the UK tumbles out of the European Union without agreement, Ireland’s unemployment rate will rise to 5.8% in 2020 and 6.9% in 2021, the bank forecast in its quarterly bulletin in Dublin on Friday. An accord would mean a much lower rate, below 5% in both years.
“In the event of a disorderly, no deal Brexit, the key channels through which the economy will be affected will be through shocks to the exchange rate, trade, consumption and investment, leading to a marked deterioration in economic conditions,” according to the bank.
Ireland’s economy is considered the most vulnerable in the EU to a no-deal Brexit — talks on a divorce settlement have stalled over how to keep the Irish border invisible after the UK exits the bloc. In a no-deal scenario, growth would ease to 0.8% in 2020, as opposed to 4.3% if a deal can be agreed.
