On Wednesday morning, some TV channels that use the health ministry’s data on Covid-19 put out an alarming number – that the number of cases had increased by 773 in the previous 24 hours, after increasing by only 354 in the 24 hours prior to that. This wasn’t entirely accurate, simply because, while the number of cases did increase by 773, not all cases were discovered in the previous 24 hours a tracker on Covid19india.org, a data resource site maintained by volunteers, and, more importantly, releases from state health departments. Some of the latter come out late in the evening, and HT collates all of them up at 10.30pm (sometimes 10.45pm). We started doing this after we realised that the health ministry was collating data with a lag. This may cause people to misinterpret the data. For instance, according to the numbers collated by HT, there were 526 new cases till late Tuesday evening. The corresponding number on Monday evening was 582, and Sunday 515. Clearly, there was no real spike on Tuesday as a jump from 354 new cases to 773 new cases would indicate.
According to HT’s dashboard, the number of cases in India was 5,885 on Wednesday (with 178 deaths). In the previous 24 hours, 580 new cases were identified.
The number of new cases in Maharashtra on Wednesday was 117, taking the state’s total to 1,135. The first case in Maharashtra was identified on March 9, and the spread of the disease in the state seems to have been driven, at least initially, by the lack of screening of travellers arriving in India by air. The western state sees a lot of people travelling to and from West Asia, and it is believed that the initial infection may have journeyed with travellers from the United Arab Emirates. The chief minister of Maharashtra, Uddhav Thackeray, has also attributed the high number of cases in the state to more aggressive testing, including door-to-door surveys.
Worryingly for Mumbai (and India), five more cases were identified in Dharavi, Asia’s largest slum, on Wednesday. Not surprisingly, Mumbai has made masks compulsory. Actually, given that many people infected with the Sars-Cov-2 virus that causes Covid-19 are asymptomatic, and that the virus stays infectious in small particle aerosols (including, in some cases, mere exhalations), India should make masks compulsory, even if they are homemade from fabric.
Maharashtra wasn’t the only state to get tough with such measures on Wednesday; Uttar Pradesh (361 cases and 4 deaths on Wednesday), has announced that 105 hot spots across 15 of the worst affected districts in the state (including Delhi’s satellite Noida) will see a hard lockdown, with comprehensive restrictions on movement of people. The state also made it mandatory for everyone to wear masks in public places (see page 4). Delhi named 13 new hot spots on Wednesday, to add to the existing 7. It too, made masks mandatory for anyone who is out. These restrictions are stricter than the ones already in place during the ongoing 21-day national lockdown.
The national lockdown was set to end on April 14, but it is now clear that it won’t, at least not entirely. In a virtual meeting with floor leaders of various parties, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said as much. HT has previously reported on research at the University of Cambridge that used mathematical models built around India’s disease and demographic data to present two scenarios where the rate of new infections actually decreased – one lockdown of 49 days, or three lockdowns of 21, 28, and 18 days with a five-day break between each. Still, research looks at issues in isolation; policy makers and administrators have a far tougher job. At this point in time, as indicated by Prime Minister Modi’s comments in the meeting, India’s policy makers have decided that a “lockdown is the only way for us to save the lives of our citizens”.
