The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is set to increase its Rajya Sabha (RS) tally.
Based on the available numbers, it is comfortably placed to win the solitary by-poll to the Upper House of Parliament from Uttar Pradesh (UP) on September 11, a notification for which was issued on Tuesday.
The by-poll will be held following the death of Samajwadi Party’s (SP) RS member Amar Singh (64) in Singapore on August 1.
However, the big push for a BJP domination in the RS — 164 is the two-third mark in the 245-member Upper House of Parliament – will occur later this year.
On November 25, the tenure of 10 RS members from UP expires following which fresh polls will be held.
At present, the BJP has 86 RS members. While the strength of the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is 113 on the basis of the BJP’s support from its coalition partners.
UP sends 31 members to the RS, the highest among all states.
The BJP, which has 305 lawmakers in the 403-member UP state legislative assembly , is sitting pretty. The ruling party is poised to win eight out of 10 seats and then may try for an additional ninth seat.
The current strength of the UP assembly is 395, as eight seats are lying vacant.
RS elections are based on proportional representation and single transferable vote, which ensures that after the first round, surplus votes get transferred to the remaining candidate in the second round.
“RS election is held on the basis of a complex equation. As per the present strength of the UP assembly, the quota of votes that each member will need for an outright win in November will be around 37,” said Brij Bhushan Dubey, the returning officer (RO) for the September 11 by-poll.
The Samajwadi Party (SP) is the second-largest party after the BJP in the UP assembly, as it has 48 lawmakers. The Bahujan Samaj Party has 18 legislators, followed by the BJP ally, Apna Dal (9), Congress (7), Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) 4, Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) (1) and independents (3).
The BJP appears comfortable to win eight RS seats from UP. While it could make a play for the ninth seat along with its ally Apna Dal, BJP leaders said.
The BJP would be left with 13 surplus votes after securing the win for its eight candidates and the tally would go up 22 on the basis of the Apna Dal’s support that has nine MLAs in the UP assembly, they added.
“There are several fence-sitters in other parties. Some MLAs in the opposition are already pro-BJP,” a party leader said, requesting anonymity.
Though BJP leader didn’t name any particular lawmaker, several lawmakers such as Rakesh Singh and Aditi Singh, Congress legislators from Harchandpur and Sadar, respectively, in Rae Bareli, had defied the party line in the recent past.
Rakesh Singh’s brother Dinesh Singh, a former member of the UP legislative council (MLC), had also contested unsuccessfully against Congress president Sonia Gandhi from Rae Bareli in last year’s parliamentary elections.
Opposition MLAs such as Nitin Agarwal, who is still a lawmaker on SP symbol, has since joined the BJP. He made the move after his father Naresh Agarwal had revolted against the SP for being denied a ticket in the RS polls held earlier this year.
“The RS polls would give an indication of not just the BJP’s political domination but also about how many ‘friends’ they have in other parties, who had come to its support during the RS polls held earlier this year. Though the opposition had come together, they couldn’t ensure victory of their candidate,” said Irshad Ilmi, a political observer.
The SP, which has 48 MLAs, is the only other party from UP that is in the reckoning to win a solitary RS seat.
10 RS MPs from UP whose tenure will end on November 25
* Arun Singh
* Javed Ali Khan
* PL Punia
* Ram Gopal Yadav
* Rajaram
* Vir Singh
* Chandrapal Singh Yadav
* Neeraj Shekhar
* Ravi Prakash Verma
* Hardeep Singh Puri
