Bihar, which is slated to go to polls in October-November, is gearing for the upcoming assembly election on schedule, despite the dual challenges of the raging coronavirus disease (Covid-19) outbreak and the annual flood fury.
Poll observers said amid the hectic election season, prospective party-hoppers are keeping an eye out for greener political pastures.
In 2015, the ruling Janata Dal (United), or JD (U), had teamed up with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress to stitch together a grand alliance (GA) to stop the Bharatiya Janata Party juggernaut on its track, a year after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s coronation in the 16th parliamentary elections.
But five years on, in politically-volatile Bihar, the equations have changed beyond recognition.
Nitish Kumar-led JD (U) is back in the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) fold, as the GA has been consigned to oblivion and its candidates are poised to eat the humble pie at the hustings.
Former Bihar minister Shyam Razak’s removal from the JD (U) has come following swirling rumours and speculations that he could switch to his mother party and the principal opposition, the RJD, to bolster his poll prospects from his Phulwari constituency that has a sizeable minority vote bank.
Similarly, Keoti member of the Bihar legislative assembly (MLA) Faraz Fatmi’s removal from the RJD, along with two others, are also on predicted lines.
Faraz is believed to have been making a move for the JD (U) since his father and former Union minister Mohammad Ali Ashraf Fatmi, a four-time Member of Parliament from the Darbhanga seat, was denied a Lok Sabha ticket by the RJD last year.
Faraz and Razak met a similar fate in the JD (U) and the RJD, respectively.
The RJD’s almost certain denial of tickets to two other lawmakers — Prema Choudhary and Maheshwar Yadav – make them ripe candidates as turncoats, who are eyeing their future political prospects with the JD (U).
Yadav, an MLA from Gayaghat in Muzaffarpur district, has been opposing the RJD since 2015, while Choudhary, an MLA from Patepur in Vaishali district, has been in the news for praising CM Kumar.
The Congress, whose political fortunes have whittled through the decades, is likely to be beset with massive desertions, poll observers said.
Party hopping has been a discerning trend in Bihar, akin to many other parts of the country, ahead of ticket distribution.
Many candidates had made a beeline for the BJP in 2015, when they had found themselves out in the cold in the GA.
Shaibal Gupta, a member-secretary of the Patna-based Asian Development Research Institute (ADRI) and a keen poll observer, said Bihar would report several defections and party-hopping because of the changing political equations and socio-economic ground realities, as compared to 2015.
“In 2015, a raft of social combinations had resulted in the formation of the GA. They have been dispensed with in the past five years. Several individual lawmakers were successful due to the GA factor. However, the winds of political fortunes have changed, which are likely to be reflected in social churning and party-hopping in the coming few weeks,” he added.
NK Choudhary, another political observer, and a former head of the department of economics, Patna University, said defections have been a common practice in Bihar ahead of elections that are deeply ingrained in an individual’s vaulting political ambitions.
“Defections lead to dissension, as loyal party workers feel let down. There has been chatter about former CM Jitan Ram Manjhi is likely to return to the JD (U), as it would be a win-win combination for both him and CM Kumar. Manjhi was not a player even a year ago, but he is back in play following a sustained attack from the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) chief Chirag Paswan,” he said.
Choudhary said that politics is the art of possibilities.
“In 2015, Kumar and Manjhi were on opposite sides of the political divide. But five years is a long time in politics, where tables have turned amid the new alignments. Ultimately, it’s all about rank opportunism and ideology is damned,” he added.
