A Bollywood potboiler may be known for its colourful song-and-dance routines, and paisa vasool entertainment. But currently, things are decidedly gloomy – due to the coronavirus outbreak – with no definite silver lining in sight for a movie industry that produces as many as 200-250 films per year. As filmmakers/producers find themselves amidst a “forced holiday”, thanks to theatres being shut and no shoots, we get experts and filmmakers to look into the crystal ball for some forecasting. Although experts unanimously agree that the industry is losing crores on a daily basis, they are also confident that the magic of cinema will attract audiences quickly once things become normal, and theatres re-open.
Being positive
As trade analyst Taran Adarsh puts it: “One thing is for sure that whenever theatres re-open, it’s not like people would start thronging theatres immediately. That [movie-watching] habit has to be cultivated again, and it will happen again but gradually.” On the other hand, trade expert Komal Nahta feels filmgoers will lap up movies that release after the coronavrus outbreak subsides. He says: “According to me, whenever theatres re-open, people are going to flock to theatres because they have been starved of entertainment, and are feeling bored. So, whenever a biggie releases, I’m sure people will lap it up.”
Exhibitor-distributor Akshaye Rathi concurs. As he puts it: “To put it simply: in the showbiz or movie business, something called ‘pent-up demand’ works really well. So, for example, whenever a big film like Sooryavanshi releases, people would want to watch it immediately because there was a huge buzz about it during the promotions etc. That’s why I am confident that when things become normal and the big, tent-pole films release one after the other in the second half of the year, we will see great results.”
Pandemonium in pipeline
Besides Sooryavanshi and ’83, other big-ticket films that are in the pipeline include Gulabo Sitabo, Ludo, Gunjan Saxena – The Kargil Girl, Coolie No. 1, The Girl On The Train, Shakuntala Devi – Human Computer, Jhund and the two Eid biggies – Radhe – Your Most Wanted Bhai and Laxmmi Bomb. Although there’s no clarity on any release date now, experts contend that a big side effect will be “less number of Fridays leading to a mad rush at the box office.”
Nahta explains: “In terms of the number of Fridays, we have had 52-53 of them. Going by the sheer number of movies that we make, those Fridays were anyway less. Now, as we lose certain number of weeks due to coronavirus, things will become even tough – whenever there is a sense of normalcy – because some major clashes are in the offing now, and they will be inevitable.”
Adarsh too feels that “there will surely be a complete pandemonium” at the box office. “We may be left with only about 35-37 Fridays this year so, there ought to be some big clashes especially since almost all our 2020 biggies are yet to release. Plus, it’s not just about India. Makers are also to work out the international release dates along with India, depending on what’s the situation like at that time in major Hindi movie markets such as US, UK and Australia etc. Also, no new, big film will release immediately after the situation comes under control because they will have to be promoted first.”
Losing streak
So, what will the straight, pure loses be like? “The industry stands to lose anything close to Rs 800 crore because all the days that we are losing, has a direct effect on Bollywood’s coffers,” says Nahta. Adds Adarsh: “The first quarter had only one major hit, Tanhaji – The Unsung Warrior. And now, it’s a given that the second quarter won’t see a great start as well.”
Filmmaker Sanjay Gupta, who has just wrapped up work on his next, Mumbai Saga, is hopeful. He says: “Let’s see how things go. It’s too early to talk about releases. Whenever it happens, I feel relatively smaller films may release together. But I am sure that the big ones will be spaced out as no one would want to take a financial hit.”
Planned moves!
Talks are rife that once theatres re-open, makers may re-release Baaghi 3 and Angrezi Medium since the business of both the films got majorly hit due to coronavirus outbreak. Also, it’s believed that Karan Johar’s Takht that was set to go on floors sometime now will be delayed due to the virus outbreak. Plus, rumours suggest that makers of Coolie No. 1 may shift the film’s release to either the end of May or first week of June, depending on the situation. But there’s no official word yet. “I’m sure producers/makers will discuss and talk with each other about release dates etc. to avoid any kind of mess,” says Gupta.
